Government polling in times of crises: when capacity meets incentives

Résumé :

How do governments mobilise public opinion in times of crises? While recent research examines the factors that determine the intensity of government polling at different points in the electoral cycle and the different representational logics behind this activity, empirical evidence on the more qualitative aspect of government polling is still lacking. What types of policy issues are covered in government polls? Understanding governments as actors in the production of public opinion, not just passive consumers, we examine the selection of issues in government polls. We present evidence from Germany, mobilising an original database of all poll questions directly commissioned by the German federal government during the 18th and 19th legislative periods (2013–2021). Using a conditional logit approach, we analyse how the character of the policy domain to which an issue belongs affects the likelihood that some issues are covered by government polls. Our results show that while motivations to ask questions about a particular issue are shaped by constraints (institutional, financial and political) on the government's ability to act in this area, incentives related to the salience of the issue can shift the focus of government polls to issues where they have less room for manoeuvre.